Market
Kalshi Overtakes Polymarket as Regulated Prediction Markets Surge
31 Jul 2026, 10:05
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Kalshi's CFTC-regulated markets now command roughly 73% share of prediction market volume as crypto-native Polymarket's share slips to 27%.
Kalshi closed May with $17.91 billion in notional trading volume, marking its ninth consecutive month of record volume, while crypto-native rival Polymarket posted $7.08 billion, down 21% from its March peak. By early July, market-share trackers put Kalshi at roughly 73% of prediction market volume against Polymarket's 27%, a significant reversal from a period when Polymarket was widely seen as the category leader.
The two platforms differ sharply in structure. Kalshi operates as a designated contract market regulated directly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, giving it a clear and well-understood regulatory status in the US. Polymarket, by contrast, runs on the Polygon blockchain and settles exclusively in USDC, a structure that has kept it firmly crypto-native but has also left it navigating a murkier regulatory position domestically, including unresolved questions and insider-trading cases tied to the platform.
Kalshi's crypto-specific contracts have been a particular growth driver, hitting a record $217.98 million in single-day volume on July 15, roughly a 44-fold increase since January. That growth is occurring even as Bitcoin itself has traded flat to weak for months, suggesting traders are increasingly using regulated prediction markets as a distinct venue for expressing views on crypto and macro outcomes, separate from spot or derivatives trading in the underlying assets. Prediction market volume across the sector is now on pace to exceed $325 billion in 2026 based on year-to-date run rates.
The sector's growth has not gone unnoticed by regulators. The New York City Council has opened an investigation into Coinbase alongside three other prediction market platforms over allegedly deceptive marketing practices, a reminder that even as Kalshi's regulated structure has helped it pull ahead of Polymarket, the broader prediction market category still faces scrutiny as it scales into a genuinely large and increasingly mainstream corner of the crypto-adjacent financial world.
Industry lawyers say the outcome of the New York City Council inquiry could set an important precedent for how prediction market advertising is regulated more broadly, regardless of whether a platform operates under CFTC oversight or a crypto-native structure like Polymarket's.
The two platforms differ sharply in structure. Kalshi operates as a designated contract market regulated directly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, giving it a clear and well-understood regulatory status in the US. Polymarket, by contrast, runs on the Polygon blockchain and settles exclusively in USDC, a structure that has kept it firmly crypto-native but has also left it navigating a murkier regulatory position domestically, including unresolved questions and insider-trading cases tied to the platform.
Kalshi's crypto-specific contracts have been a particular growth driver, hitting a record $217.98 million in single-day volume on July 15, roughly a 44-fold increase since January. That growth is occurring even as Bitcoin itself has traded flat to weak for months, suggesting traders are increasingly using regulated prediction markets as a distinct venue for expressing views on crypto and macro outcomes, separate from spot or derivatives trading in the underlying assets. Prediction market volume across the sector is now on pace to exceed $325 billion in 2026 based on year-to-date run rates.
The sector's growth has not gone unnoticed by regulators. The New York City Council has opened an investigation into Coinbase alongside three other prediction market platforms over allegedly deceptive marketing practices, a reminder that even as Kalshi's regulated structure has helped it pull ahead of Polymarket, the broader prediction market category still faces scrutiny as it scales into a genuinely large and increasingly mainstream corner of the crypto-adjacent financial world.
Industry lawyers say the outcome of the New York City Council inquiry could set an important precedent for how prediction market advertising is regulated more broadly, regardless of whether a platform operates under CFTC oversight or a crypto-native structure like Polymarket's.